Capstone’s Senior Vice President, Wes Teague, was featured in Future Age, the magazine of the of the American Association of Homes and Services for the Aging (AAHSA). Wes is vice-chair of Goodwin House, Inc., community for seniors in Alexandria, VA.  The article features comments Wes made after his attendance at AAHSA’s 2009 annual meeting, along with an interview.  The digital magazine can be accessed by clicking here, with Wes’ interview found on pages 38 and 39.

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The New York Stock Exchange ended 2009 up nearly 30% over 2008.  That makes a lot of individuals feel better about the economy because they “feel” wealthier.

Companies are no different.  With an up market we expect M&A activity to increase, generally as a laggard to the equities market.  Think about it:  a company’s stock price is up so they can use the stock as currency to buy other companies or as currency to obtain debt to acquire companies. Either way, we should  expect an uptick in 2010 M&A activity to follow the strong performance of the equities markets in 2009.

Warren Buffett commented on this topic recently when he skewered Kraft for its stock offer to Cadbury saying:

The share-issuance proposal, if enacted, will give Kraft a blank check allowing it to change its offer to Cadbury

Watch for more public companies to make acquisition announcements, especially after they report 2009 earnings.  This could be a good time to think about divesting!

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Bloomberg recently reported that:

“Chief executive officers are so sure the economy will keep recovering they’re agreeing to prices that are 37 percent higher than the average since 2001, when Bloomberg started compiling data. While stocks in the S&P 500 are trading at the most expensive valuations in seven years compared with profits in the last 12 months, buyers are looking out to 2011, when analysts say earnings will have risen 52 percent.”

While I agree with the premise, I think the numbers can be a little misleading.  Specifically, which earnings are they taking the numbers from?  As we all know the past 12 months have been disastrous financial period for almost every business - except perhaps bankruptcy professionals and financial advisors.  If you took the multiples and based them on past averages or against projections for the next 24 months it is probably in line with past year’s valuation multiples.

The news here though, is that CEOs are back to buying, because they feel the future will be brighter than now.  I continue to believe that for the next 12-16 months it is a market for strategic buyers who have cash.  The credit markets are dormant and CEOs remain reluctant to use debt. So with the increase in the stock market and confidence that the markets have hit bottom and are now improving, many CEOs are getting back into the M&A market.  I predict that in late 2011 you will see a frothy M&A market - so sharpen your strategic focus and carefully evaluate your growth plans!

Multiples are down, debt is historically cheap, financial buyers are on the sidelines, the market is widely expected to improve so… (you know the phrase) if not now, when?

Technorati Tags: Acquisition Strategy, acquisitions, business acquisitions, Capstone, David Braun, External Growth, Integration, M&A, mergers, Mergers and Acquisitions